I think whatever odds I get, it is a banker.
Today's Barcelona are arguably the greatest club team ever. They are miles ahead of everyone else in Europe, well apart from one team. Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid may not be as dynamic and easy on the eye as their Catalan rivals, but they are more methodical and have the ability, seen in every team the 'Special One' has managed, to grind out results. And despite having their lead cut by two points at the weekend, Real Madrid are still an impressive eights points clear at the top of the Spanish La Liga.
Before the weekend, a first league title since 2008 for Madrid seemed a foregone conclusion. Even Pep Guardiola was controversially quoted as saying, "Forget it, we won't win this league title". But Guardiola's men were given a glimmer of hope, with the help of Spain's equivalent to Man City, Malaga. The big spending Andalusian club prevented Real from winning a twelfth straight match in La Liga, thanks to Santi Cazorla's 92 minute equaliser. The last manager to win twelve league games in a row as Real Madrid manager was Manuel Pellegrini, coincidentally now the manager of Malaga. However, I would be very surprised if Sunday's result was anything more than a stutter for the champions elect.
Barcelona's best chance at stopping Mourinho's Madrid is in Europe's maiden competition. An 'El Classico' Champions League final seems inevitable, especially with the two avoiding each other in the quarter final and semi final draws. An inconsistent AC Milan, before a likely tie against an inconsistent Chelsea are all that stand in the way of the Catalans and a third final in four years. Barca will also aim to become the first team since AC Milan in 1990 to retain the title.
Real Madrid have a less straight forward run to the final. They must firstly overcome the Cypriot champions Apoel Nicosia, before a probable tie against free scoring Bayern Munich. The German side have undergone a renaissance in recent years, and under the management of former Madrid manager Jupp Heynckes - who won the champions league with Madrid - have scored twenty goals in their last three games.
Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Athletico Madrid sit third, seventh and ninth in La Liga respectively. Similarly to the Champions League, all remaining Spanish contingents avoided each other in the quarter final draw. Apart from Bilbao, who face a tricky tie against Schalke, the Spanish sides face relatively easy opponents. Athletico Madrid face mid table German opponents Hannover, who have very little pedigree on the European stage. A highly improved Valencia side will face AZ Alkmaar of Holland. Although AZ are top of the Eredivisie, only five points separate them and sixth place. Many people in Holland believe if would be in the best interests of Alkmaar to take one eye off the Europa League if they want to win their third league title, after some unconvincing results in recent weeks.
So with all five Spanish teams avoiding each other in last weeks European draws, the possibility of two all Spanish finals is highly likely. If I had to choose right now, I would predict a Barca - Madrid Champions League final, and a Bilbao - Valencia Europa League final. After humiliating Man United in the last round, if Bilbao can knock out Schalke I can not see anyone standing in their way.
That just leaves the national team. La Furia Roja - The Red Fury - as they are known, are the defending World and European champions. Their most likely line-up features ten players that play for the top three in Spain (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia). Only a certain David Silva gatecrashes the party, a man who is odds on to be voted the best player in England. On that basis, Spain are strong favourites to retain their title in Kiev. However as far as my bet goes, I think this one is the most likely to be the downfall. No team has ever defended the European Championship. If I was to bet on anyone, apart from Spain, it would be Germany. You can never write off 2008's runners-up. Before 2008, Germany had finished runners-up twice in European Championship history and had gone on to win the following tournament on both occasions. Will Joachim Low's men show their 'bouncebackability' once again?
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